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Earth likely to warm more than 2 degrees this century
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

Warming of the planet by 2 degrees Celsius is often seen as a "tipping point" that people should try to avoid by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. But the Earth is very likely to exceed that change, according to new University of Washington research. A study using statistical tools shows only a 5 percent chance that Earth will warm 2 degrees or less by the end of this century. It shows a mere 1 percent chance that warming could be at or below 1.5 degrees, the target set by the 2016 Paris Agreement.

"Our analysis shows that the goal of 2 degrees is very much a best-case scenario," said lead author Adrian Raftery, a UW professor of statistics and sociology. "It is achievable, but only with major, sustained effort on all fronts over the next 80 years."

The new, statistically-based projections, published July 31 in Nature Climate Change, show a 90 percent chance that temperatures will increase this century by 2.0 to 4.9 C.

"Our analysis is compatible with previous estimates, but it finds that the most optimistic projections are unlikely to happen," Raftery said. "We're closer to the margin than we think."
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